An Investment Case Has Not Been Independently Tested
A significant investment decision is proceeding based primarily on the target's own projections, without independent commercial verification.
How we can help
Investment Research
Stress-testing the evidence behind an investment case.
Overview
Investment decisions depend on the quality of the evidence behind them. A commercially compelling opportunity can still prove disappointing if the market assumptions, competitive dynamics or operational realities underpinning it were never rigorously tested before capital was committed.
Due diligence conducted too narrowly, focused only on financial statements without sufficient commercial and market investigation, can miss the risks that ultimately determine whether an investment succeeds.
At Concinnity, we conduct commercial and market due diligence that stress-tests the evidence behind an investment case, giving investors and acquirers a rigorous, independent view before capital is committed.
Due Diligence & Investment Research
We help investors and acquirers test the commercial and market assumptions behind an investment case before capital is committed, not after.
The objective is an independent, rigorous view of an investment case before capital is committed, not confirmation sought after the decision has already been made.
Commercial Due Diligence
Assess the commercial viability of a target business or opportunity, examining its market position, customer base, competitive dynamics and growth prospects.
Market Due Diligence
Independently verify the market assumptions underpinning an investment case, including market size, growth trajectory and competitive intensity.
Risk Assessment
Identify and assess the commercial, market and operational risks that could affect the investment's performance.
Investment Case Validation
Stress-test the assumptions behind an investment thesis, distinguishing well-evidenced claims from optimistic projection.
Post-Investment Performance Monitoring
Establish frameworks for monitoring whether an investment's actual performance is tracking against the assumptions in its original case.
Signs You Need This
The value of due diligence is highest precisely before a decision is irreversible, not once capital has already been committed.
The common thread: capital is about to be committed based on a case that has not yet been independently and rigorously tested.
Market Assumptions Feel Optimistic
The market size and growth assumptions behind an investment case appear more favourable than independent evidence would suggest.
Financial Due Diligence Has Not Been Matched by Commercial Diligence
Financial statements have been reviewed thoroughly, but the underlying commercial and market assumptions have received far less scrutiny.
A Previous Investment Underperformed Its Case
A prior investment has underperformed relative to its original business case, raising questions about the diligence process behind it.
Competitive Risk Was Not Fully Assessed
An investment decision did not adequately assess how competitive dynamics in the target's market could affect its future performance.
Our Approach
We begin by clarifying the specific investment question at stake, since due diligence scope should be shaped by what the investor actually needs to know to make a confident decision.
We investigate the market and commercial evidence independently, testing the assumptions in the investment case against primary research, market data and independent analysis.
The investment case is then stress-tested rigorously, distinguishing genuinely well-evidenced claims from optimistic projection, and identifying the risks that could materially affect performance.
Findings are reported clearly, giving investors and acquirers a concise, evidence-based basis for their final decision.
The result is an independent, evidence-based view of the investment case, giving investors genuine confidence before capital is committed.
